23 minutes left and one kick of the ball f*ks you. Soccer is a funny game, literally any . woah, as I was typing that the Dutch bang one home to make it 3-1. My over hits. To finish, literally any kick of the game can often decide or tie a game. Having said that, I would say that -1000 is +EV, I think fewer than 1 in 11 teams down 2-0 with 35 minutes left end up tying a game.